A Glimpse Into the Future: Comparisons of Junior and Senior World Championships

Junior versus Senior

A few weeks ago I wrote about US dominance and international parity in swimming, and how it has changed over the years (here). For the last decade or so we’ve pretty much had status quo, with 30-35 countries typically making finals, and the US only slipping slightly in terms of percentage of swimmers making finals.

With the 2015 World Junior Swimming Championships over, it gives me the chance to compare those results with the Senior results, and perhaps see where the world is heading when these juniors reach full maturity.

International Parity

Since the Senior analysis was based on finalists, that’s where I’ll start.

Take a look at that chart, and now look at the same chart for Juniors

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We can see right away that the US Juniors did much better, making finals in 75% of their races compared to 61% for their Senior compatriots. But also note that most of these top 10 numbers are higher. In fact, when I go back to the data I can see that the top 10 countries at the Senior Worlds accounted for 68% of all finalists. While at the Juniors, the top 10 countries accounted for 81% of the finalists.

In other words, there is far less parity at the Junior Worlds than there is at the Seniors.

When I broke this down by gender, and the results get even more interesting.

2015 – Top Ten Countries – Finals %

Men

Junior: 78%

Senior: 73%

Women

Junior: 88%

Senior: 74%

The big surprise there is that 88% of the Junior Women finalists come from only 10 countries. That is an astonishing concentration of success in a few countries. And without the 2 swimmer per country limit, that % would most likely be well into the mid-90s.

To determine if the 2015 World Junior Championship was an anomaly, I also looked at the 2013 …read more

Source: Rick’s Blog